- 2021-08-31 00:05:35
- LAST MODIFIED: 2024-11-21 08:47:08
IMF chief economist says emerging markets cannot afford repeat of "taper tantrum"
Photo Collected:
International Desk:
Dhaka, Aug-31,
Gita Gopinath, chief
economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has warned that emerging
markets cannot afford a repeat of the "taper tantrum" market
disruption that occurred in 2013 as the U.S. central bank prepares to withdraw
monetary stimulus.
"They (emerging
markets) are getting hit in many different ways, which is why they just cannot
afford a situation where you have some sort of a tantrum of financial markets
originating from the major central banks," Gopinath said Sunday in an
interview with the Financial Times.
Gopinath's comments
came after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that the Fed
could start tapering asset purchases this year if the U.S. economy evolved
broadly as anticipated.
While highlighting the
economic pressures on low and middle-income countries, Gopinath warned of the
potential fallout should inflation become a more pernicious issue in the United
States and force a sudden move to tighten monetary policy.
"We are concerned
about a scenario where you would have inflation come up much higher than
expected, and that would require a much quicker normalization of monetary
policy in the U.S.," she said, adding central bankers needed to provide
"super clear communication" on a frequent basis about their policy
path forward.
Emerging market assets
sold off significantly amid a sudden push higher in U.S. Treasury yields in
2013, when then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first mentioned the idea of tapering
the Fed's pace of asset purchases.
"Emerging markets
remain vulnerable to tapering by the Federal Reserve, as less support for the
U.S. economy could tighten financial conditions across the globe,"
Jonathan Fortun, economist at the Institute of International Finance, said in a
note earlier this month.
"Despite the bleak
outlook, we believe that contagion risk is less severe than during the EM
(emerging market) sell-off in 2018 or during the 2013 taper tantrum,"
Fortun said, noting the importance of emerging market policy credibility will
be paramount in the months ahead, especially if interest rates rise.
The Fed has pledged to
keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the record-low level of near
zero, while continuing its asset purchase program at least at the current pace
of 120 billion U.S. dollars per month until "substantial further progress"
has been made on employment and inflation.
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