- 2021-08-12 00:55:17
- LAST MODIFIED: 2024-11-20 21:22:32
US keeping distance as Afghan forces face Taliban rout
Photo collected:
International Desk:
Dhaka, Aug-12,
Afghan government
forces are collapsing even faster than U.S. military leaders thought possible
just a few months ago when President Joe Biden ordered a full withdrawal. But
there’s little appetite at the White House, the Pentagon or among the American
public for trying to stop the rout and it probably is too late to do so.
Biden has made clear he
has no intention of reversing the decision he made last spring, even as the
outcome seems to point toward a Taliban takeover. With most U.S. troops now
gone and the Taliban accelerating their battlefield gains, American military
leaders are not pressing him to change his mind. They know that the only
significant option would be for the president to restart the war he already
decided to end.
The Taliban, who ruled
the country from 1996 until U.S. forces invaded after the 9/11 attacks,
captured three more provincial capitals Wednesday, giving them effective
control of about two-thirds of the country. The insurgents have no air force
and are outnumbered by U.S.-trained Afghan defense forces, but they have
captured territory with stunning speed.
John Kirby, the chief
Pentagon spokesman, said the Afghans still have time to save themselves from
final defeat.
“No potential outcome
has to be inevitable, including the fall of Kabul,” Kirby told reporters. “It
doesn’t have to be that way. It really depends on what kind of political and
military leadership the Afghans can muster to turn this around.”
Biden made a similar
point a day earlier, telling reporters that U.S. troops had done all they could
over the past 20 years to assist the Afghans.
“They’ve got to fight
for themselves, fight for their nation,” he said.
The United States
continues to support the Afghan military with limited airstrikes, but those
have not made a strategic difference thus far and are scheduled to end when the
U.S. formally ends its role in the war on Aug. 31. Biden could continue
airstrikes beyond that date, but given his firm stance on ending the war, that
seems unlikely.
“My suspicion, my
strong suspicion, is that the 31st of August timeline’s going to hold,” said
Carter Malkasian, who advised U.S. military leaders in Afghanistan and
Washington.
Senior U.S. military
officials had cautioned Biden that a full U.S. withdrawal could lead to a
Taliban takeover, but the president decided in April that continuing the war
was a waste. He said Tuesday that his decision holds, even amid talk that the
Taliban could soon be within reach of Kabul, threatening the security of U.S.
and other foreign diplomats.
The most recent
American military assessment, taking into account the Taliban’s latest gains,
says Kabul could be under insurgent pressure by September and that the country
could fall entirely to Taliban control within a couple of months, according to
a defense official who discussed the internal analysis Wednesday on condition
of anonymity.
Officials said that
there has been no decision or order for an evacuation of American diplomatic
personnel from Afghanistan. But one official said it is now time for serious
conversations about whether the U.S. military should begin to move assets into
the region to be ready in case the State Department calls for a sudden
evacuation.
Kirby declined to
discuss any evacuation planning, but one congressional official said a recent
National Security Council meeting had discussed preliminary planning for a
potential evacuation of the U.S. Embassy but came to no conclusions.
Any such plan would
involve identifying U.S. troops, aircraft and other assets that may have to
operate from within Afghanistan or nearby areas. The U.S. already has warships
in the region, including the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier and the USS Iwo
Jima amphibious ready group with the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard.
Military officials
watching the deteriorating situation said that so far the Taliban hasn’t taken
steps to threaten Kabul. But it isn’t clear if the Taliban will wait until it
has gained control of the bulk of the country before attempting to seize the
capital.
Military commanders
have long warned that it would be a significant challenge for the Afghan
military to hold off the Taliban through the end of the year. In early May,
shortly after Biden announced his withdrawal decision, Gen. Mark Milley,
chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he foresaw “some really dramatic,
bad possible outcomes” in a worst-case scenario. He held out hope that the
government would unify and hold off the Taliban, and said the outcome could
clarify by the end of the summer.
The security of the
U.S. diplomatic corps has been talked about for months, even before the
Taliban’s battlefield blitz. The military has long had various planning options
for evacuating personnel from Afghanistan. Those options would largely be
determined by the White House and the State Department.
A key component of the
options would be whether the U.S. military would have unfettered access to the
Kabul international airport, allowing personnel to be flown systematically out
of the capital. In a grimmer environment, American forces might have to fight
their way in and out if the Taliban have infiltrated the city.
The U.S. also would
have to determine who would be evacuated: just American embassy personnel and
the U.S. military, or also other embassies, American citizens, and Afghans who
worked with the U.S. In that last category are former interpreters and those
who face retaliation from the Taliban. The U.S. has already started pulling out
hundreds of those Afghans who assisted troops during the war.
Senior defense leaders
have been talking and meeting daily, laying out their grim assessments of the
security situation in Afghanistan. Officials pointed to the fall of Baghlan
Province as a worrisome bellwether, because it provides the Taliban with a base
and route to Kabul from the north.
End/Dct/Int/Sma/